衰退对教育与收入的长期影响

中文摘要

本文考察了1980—1982年经济衰退对教育与收入的长期影响。利用人口普查保密数据，我估计了双重差分回归，利用了各县衰退严重程度的差异以及各队列在衰退发生时年龄的差异。对于1979年时0—10岁的个体，其出生县人均收入下降10%会使四年制大学学位获得率降低15%，并使其成年期收入降低5%。简单的计算表明，总体而言，1980—1982年经济衰退导致大学毕业生减少130万—280万人，每年劳动收入减少660亿—1390亿美元。

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential Census data, I estimate difference-in-differences regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0-10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that, in aggregate, the 1980-1982 recession led to 1.3-2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66-$139 billion less earned income per year.