富人是否用政治捐赠替代慈善捐赠？
Do the rich substitute political giving for charitable giving?
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Julia Cagé", "affiliation": ["Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris"]}, {"name": "Malka Guillot", "affiliation": ["University of Liège"]}]
中文摘要
本文研究慈善捐赠与政治捐赠之间的关系，并估计二者之间的替代程度，重点关注富裕家庭。利用覆盖2006年至2021年全体法国家庭的详尽行政税务数据，我们利用了2017年以房地产税取代财富税的改革。该项改革提高了此前负有纳税义务、但改革后不再负有该义务的家庭进行慈善捐赠的有效价格，而政治捐赠的价格保持不变。这一独特情境使我们能够通过工具变量双重差分（Difference-in-Differences）方法，估计政治捐赠相对于慈善捐赠价格的交叉价格弹性。根据我们的估计，慈善捐赠价格每上升10%，会导致进行政治捐赠的倾向增加0.18个百分点，并使在做出捐赠的家庭中捐赠金额大幅上升（相当于均值的3%）。最后，我们讨论了这种替代关系背后可能存在的机制，并提供了提示性证据，表明部分慈善捐赠可能从一开始就带有政治动机。
Abstract
This article studies the relationship between charitable and political giving, and estimates the degree of substitutability between the two, focusing on wealthy households. Using exhaustive administrative tax data covering all French households between 2006 and 2021, we exploit the 2017 reform that replaced the wealth tax with a real-estate tax. This reform increased the effective price of charitable giving for households that were previously liable but are no longer liable, while leaving the price of political donations unchanged. This unique setting allows us to estimate the cross-price elasticity of political donations with respect to the price of charitable giving through an instrumented Difference-in-Differences approach. According to our estimates, a 10% increase in the price of charitable giving leads to a 0.18 p.p. increase in the propensity to make a political donation, and to a large rise (corresponding to 3 % of the mean) in the amount given conditional on giving. We finally discuss the possible mechanisms behind this substitutability, and provide suggestive evidence indicating that some charitable giving may have been politically motivated from the outset.