黑人选举胜利会改变种族偏见吗?来自势均力敌选举的证据
Do Black electoral victories shift racial bias? Evidence from close elections
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Jung Sakong", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
黑人候选人的选举胜利是否会影响美国白人的种族偏见程度?本文考察黑人与白人候选人之间势均力敌的地方选举后,外显种族态度与内隐联想测验(IAT)得分的变化。我构建了一个将选举结果与候选人种族相关联的新数据集,采用断点回归(RD)设计,并辅以双重差分(DID)方法加以补充。相对于黑人候选人惜败的情形,其险胜后,白人受访者的反黑人偏见有所上升。我讨论了这一模式可能的解释,并探讨这些发现如何有助于我们理解种族态度对政治变化的反应。
Abstract
Do Black electoral victories affect the degree of racial bias among White Americans? This paper examines changes in explicit racial attitudes and Implicit Association Test (IAT) scores following close local elections between Black and White candidates. I construct a novel dataset linking election outcomes to candidate race and implement a regression discontinuity design, supplemented by difference-in-differences approaches. Anti-Black bias among White respondents increases following narrow victories by Black candidates, relative to close losses. I discuss possible interpretations of this pattern and consider how these findings inform our understanding of racial attitudes in response to political change.
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