中文摘要
我研究电网扩张对批发电力市场中可再生能源长期投资溢出效应的影响。基于风电项目选址的离散选择模型与双重差分设计,我分析了得克萨斯州的一项大规模电网扩张工程。结果显示,在拥有电网基础设施的地区,风电投资每年带来15.6亿美元的减排效益,并使支付给土地所有者的年度款项增加1100万美元。然而,局地集中的风电投资叠加有限的输电容量,导致近年来弃风现象不断加剧,凸显了输电政策需要采取长期规划的方法。• 输电扩张带来对可再生能源的长期投资。• 在得克萨斯州,对电网扩张进行投资的县每年新增风电装机容量100兆瓦,并由此每年产生15.6亿美元的避免排放效益。• 土地所有者获得的租赁付款每年增加1100万美元,创造了本地私人收益。• 在输电容量不足的情况下,局地风电投资可能增加弃风,部分抵消减排收益。
Abstract
I study the impact of grid expansion on long-run renewable investment spillovers in wholesale electricity markets. Using a discrete choice model of wind project location and a Difference-in-Difference design, I analyze a large-scale grid expansion project in Texas. Results show $1.56 billion per year in lower emissions and $11 million in increased annual payments to landowners due to wind investments in areas with grid infrastructure. However, localized wind investments coupled with limited transmission capacity have led to rising curtailments in recent years, highlighting the need for a long-term planning approach to transmission policy. • Transmission expansion leads to long-term investment in renewable energy. • In Texas, counties with investment in grid expansion saw 100 MW per year in higher wind capacity generating $1.56 billion per year in avoided emissions. • Landowner lease payments rose by $11 million per year, creating private local benefits. • Localized wind investment without sufficient transmission capacity can increase curtailment, partially offsetting emissions gains.