对环境威胁的预期与适应
Expectations and Adaptation to Environmental Threats
The Economic Journal · 2025 · [{"name": "Husnain Ahmad", "affiliation": ["Trinity University"]}, {"name": "Matthew Gibson", "affiliation": ["Williams College"]}, {"name": "Fatiq Nadeem", "affiliation": ["University of California, Santa Barbara", "University of California System"]}, {"name": "Sanval Nasim", "affiliation": ["Colby College"]}, {"name": "Arman Rezaee", "affiliation": ["University of California System", "University of California, Davis"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 信息和人力资本的匮乏可能使人们难以形成准确预期，从而限制其对空气污染等不确定环境威胁的应对。我们在巴基斯坦拉合尔研究了两项交叉随机干预：(i) 预测的一般性培训；(ii) 提供空气污染预测。两者均降低了受试者自身的空气污染预测误差；培训效应表明，适度的教育干预可以持久改善预测技能。接收预测增加了对防护口罩的需求，也提高了户外时间对污染的响应性。预测接收者愿意支付其手机总费用的41%以继续获取预测服务，这与适应带来的福利收益相一致。
Abstract
Abstract Scarce information and human capital may make it difficult to form accurate expectations, limiting responses to uncertain environmental threats like air pollution. We study two cross-randomised interventions in Lahore, Pakistan: (i) general training in forecasting and (ii) provision of air pollution forecasts. Both reduced the subjects’ own air pollution forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast recipients were willing to pay 41% of their total mobile phone costs for continued access, consistent with welfare gains from adaptation.