Journal of Monetary Economics · 2026 · Sushant Acharya、Édouard Challe、Giancarlo Corsetti A
中文摘要
我们研究货币政策如何影响遭受出口冲击的两部门小型开放经济——出口冲击可能源于出口关税、地缘政治紧张局势或目的地国家的衰退——的宏观经济结果，并允许该冲击同时具有总量效应与分配效应。工人跨部门流动的不完全性，加之针对总量冲击与特质冲击的市场不完全，意味着出口收缩(i)经由家庭的预防性反应在部门间产生溢出效应，以及(ii)影响部门内部与部门之间的收入和消费不平等——此外还对部门产出与工资产生通常的非对称影响。在这一背景下，汇率弹性为消费不平等的低效波动提供了保险，这提升了浮动汇率制度的社会价值。相对于名义汇率钉住，弹性通胀目标制有助于缓解出口收缩后消费不平等的上升，尤其是在可贸易部门工人中。然而，一般而言，即便是弹性通胀目标制，相对于最优货币政策也不能提供足够充分的汇率弹性。
Abstract
We study how monetary policy shapes macroeconomic outcomes in a two-sector small open economy hit by export shocks – due, e.g., to export tariffs, geopolitical tensions, or a recession in destination countries – allowing the shock to have both aggregate and distributional effects. Imperfect worker mobility across sectors, coupled with incomplete markets against aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, implies that export contractions (i) spill over across sectors due to households’ precautionary response and (ii) affect income and consumption inequalities within and across sectors — in addition to their usual asymmetric effects on sectoral outputs and wages. In this context, exchange-rate flexibility provides insurance against inefficient fluctuations in consumption inequality, which increases the social value of floating-rate regimes. Relative to a nominal exchange-rate peg, flexible inflation targeting helps mitigate the rise in consumption inequality after an export contraction, especially among tradable-sector workers. However, even flexible inflation targeting does not in general provide sufficient exchange-rate flexibility relative to the optimal monetary policy.