供给冲击与通胀：来自金融市场的及时洞见

We introduce a mixed-frequency model that identifies supply shocks in the United States in quasi-real time. The model decomposes weekly movements in inflation-linked swap rates — market-based inflation expectations — and isolates three supply shocks: global value chain disruptions, energy supply shocks, and domestic supply constraints, separating them from demand-driven factors. We show how these shocks contributed to a post-Covid feedback loop that intensified price reactions. By linking weekly shocks to monthly inflation components up to the industry level, we find that global value chain disruptions generate the most persistent and broad-based price pressures, while energy and domestic supply shocks tend to produce more transitory effects, as their narrower inflationary impact is more easily offset by demand-dampening, contractionary forces. Our model captures these various supply-side dynamics effectively and offers timely insights to support a more responsive monetary policy.