家庭流动性与货币政策的可调利率抵押贷款现金流渠道

We examine what is widely considered to be one of the strongest channels of monetary policy transmission into household spending—the effect of changes in mortgage repayments when mortgage rates are linked to the short-term policy rate. Using bank transactions data from Australia, we analyze a cumulative 425 basis point increase in the central bank policy rate, which caused mortgage repayments for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages to increase by $13,800 over the tightening cycle. We find little change in the spending of adjustable-rate mortgagors relative to fixed-rate mortgagors. This is because adjustable-rate mortgagors used large excess repayment buffers they had accumulated to smooth consumption. Our findings demonstrate that high household liquidity, such as from a large fiscal stimulus, substantially weakens the effects of monetary tightening, even when there is a strong direct link between policy rates and household budgets.