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风险厌恶与时变风险的一个无关性定理

An irrelevance theorem for risk aversion and time-varying risk
Review of Economic Dynamics · 2026 · Andrew Y. Chen、Francisco J. Palomino

中文摘要

我们给出一个关于风险与风险态度在宏观经济模型中作用的定理,该定理澄清并拓展了Tallarini(2000)的分离结果。在(1)跨期偏好与风险偏好分离、(2)模型基本要素中一阶矩与高阶矩驱动因素分离、(3)约束近似线性的条件下,对于任何内生变量关于不驱动高阶矩变动的状态变量的弹性,风险厌恶与时变风险均无关。我们讨论了模型如何通过“打破”或“适应”该定理中的假设,使风险发挥更突出的作用。

Abstract

We provide a theorem on the role of risk and risk attitudes in macroeconomic models that clarifies and extends the Tallarini (2000) separation result. Under (1) separation of intertemporal and risk preferences, (2) separation of drivers of first and higher moments in the model primitives, and (3) approximate linearity of constraints, risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for the elasticity of any endogenous variable with respect to state variables that don’t drive variation in higher moments. We discuss how models generate a more prominent role for risk by “breaking” or “adapting” to the assumptions in the theorem.
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