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威权政权下促生育政策的反噬

Pronatalist Policies’ Backlash in Authoritarian Regimes
The Journal of Economic History · 2026 · Thomas Baudin、Robert Stelter

中文摘要

欧洲法西斯政权高度重视民族主义家庭,并设计了使其得以延续的政策。多数政权推出了包含通过生育即可偿还的无息贷款在内的政策组合,并为多子女家庭提供津贴和税收减免。本文采用双重差分方法,以纳粹德国为案例,表明这些政策可能因婚姻市场中的负向选择机制而产生适得其反的效果。施加于单身者身上的过度结婚压力导致了质量更低、最终生育力更低且更为脆弱的婚姻结合。这一发现具有重要意义,因为当今欧洲主要极右翼政党正提议恢复这些政策组合。

Abstract

European fascist regimes have attached great importance to nationalistic families and designed policies to perpetuate them. Most offered policy packages with interest-free loans repayable through childbirth, along with allowances and tax deductions for large families. Using a difference-in-difference approach and Nazi Germany as a case study, we show that these policies may have counterproductive effects due to negative selection mechanisms in the marriage market. The excessive pressure to marry exerted on singles results in lower quality, ultimately less fertile, and more fragile unions. This finding is important as the main European far-right parties today propose reinstating these policy packages.
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