Why Was the Wheel (Not) Used in the Andes? A Hypothesis Explaining the Slow Adoption of Wagon Transport and Evidence from Nineteenth-Century Colombia
中文摘要
马车运输在安第斯山区采用缓慢,这是一个谜题。我们通过构建一个阈值技术采用模型来考察这一问题,该模型利用人力与骡力的能量消耗以及来自安第斯山区一条人力步道和第一条马车道路的独特历史数据进行校准。模型预测与历史上的社会选择相符。前哥伦布时期的人们为降低能量成本而选择了笔直、陡峭、短捷的路线供人力搬运工使用,西班牙人则以骡驮方式使用该路线。十九世纪晚期运输需求的增长超过了模型阈值,推动了之字形、平缓、漫长的马车道路路线的修建,也为建设国家能力提供了激励。
Abstract
The slow adoption of wagon transport in the Andes is a puzzle. We examine it by developing a threshold technology-adoption model calibrated using human and mule energy consumption and unique historical data from a human trail and the first wagon road in the Andes. Model predictions align with historical social choices. Pre-Columbians selected a straight, steep, short route for human porters to reduce energy costs, while the Spanish used it with mule packs. Late nineteenth-century transport demand growth surpassed the model’s threshold and contributed to construction of the zigzagging, gentle, long wagon road route, as well as incentives to build state capacity.