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历史上的反法西斯主义与意大利的右翼投票

Historical Anti-Fascism and Right-Wing Voting in Italy
The Journal of Economic History · 2026 · Marco Lecci、Laura Panza、Eik Leong Swee、Giulio Zanella

中文摘要

我们研究墨索里尼独裁时期的反法西斯反对活动如何影响战后意大利对右翼政党的支持。我们基于有记录的反对者全体构建反法西斯主义程度的度量,并利用新数字化的历史数据,借助保卫国家特别法庭法官的随机指派,解决反对力量供给与镇压需求之间的联立性问题。地方反对越强烈,数十年后对右翼政党的支持越弱。我们的模型给出关于潜在机制的预测,并利用集体纪念与父母投票行为的数据加以检验。主要驱动因素是政治偏好的社会传递。

Abstract

We study how anti-fascist opposition during Mussolini’s dictatorship affects post-war support for right-wing parties in Italy. We construct a measure of anti-fascism from the universe of recorded opponents, and use newly digitized historical data to resolve simultaneity between the supply of opposition and the demand for repression, leveraging the random assignment of judges to the Special Tribunal for the Defense of the State. Stronger local opposition leads to weaker support for right-wing parties decades later. Our model generates predictions about underlying mechanisms, tested using data on collective memorialization and parental voting behavior. The main driver is social transmission of political preferences.
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