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危机与教育成就

Crises and Educational Attainment
The Journal of Economic History · 2026 · Pawel Janas

中文摘要

1910年至1940年间,美国高中毕业率增长至原来的五倍,推动了二十世纪的经济增长。本文探讨大萧条时期青年失业率的飙升如何影响这一趋势,并着重考察性别与社会经济地位方面的差异。利用关联的普查数据与新近数字化的城市层面失业率数据,我发现青年失业显著提高了较高收入家庭男孩完成高中及高中后教育的比例,而对女孩和低收入家庭青年的影响微不足道。这些结果凸显了家庭资源在把握教育机会中的作用:金融约束限制了弱势群体从机会成本下降中获益。

Abstract

Between 1910 and 1940, U.S. high school graduation rates rose five-fold, driving twentieth-century economic growth. I explore how the Great Depression’s surge in youth unemployment influenced this trend, emphasizing gender and socioeconomic disparities. Using linked census data and newly digitized city-level unemployment rates, I find that youth unemployment significantly increased high school and post-secondary completion among higher-income boys, while effects on girls and lower-income youths were negligible. These results underscore the role of household resources in leveraging educational opportunities, as financial constraints limited disadvantaged groups from benefiting from reduced opportunity costs. *
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