主权债务危机的后果：叙事方法

中文摘要

本文在1870年至2010年间50个违约经济体的样本中考察主权债务危机的因果效应。由于违约具有潜在内生性，我们使用叙事方法来识别看似外生的危机事件。我们发现，成本在经济上和统计上均显著，最高可达GDP的3.2%，随后在五年后恢复至危机前水平。然而，平均后果掩盖了按违约原因划分的巨大异质性。源于负向供给冲击、政治危机或不利贸易条件的违约与更高的成本相关。相比之下，需求冲击的影响较为温和，且很快被逆转。*

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal effects of sovereign debt crises in a sample of 50 defaulting economies between 1870 and 2010. As default is potentially endogenous, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous episodes. We find economically and statistically significant costs of up to 3.2 percent of GDP before recovering to the pre-crisis level after five years. The average aftermath, however, conceals a large heterogeneity by default cause. Defaults originating from negative supply shocks, political crises, or adverse terms of trade are associated with higher costs. Demand shocks, in contrast, have a moderate effect that is quickly reversed. *