← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

贬值、出口与大萧条的复苏

Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression
The Journal of Economic History · 2026 · Jason Lennard、Meredith M. Paker

中文摘要

本文评估一项重大政策转变——1931年9月暂停金本位——如何影响战间期英国的就业结果。我们利用一个新的高频行业层面数据集和双重差分方法,分离出贬值对出口商的影响。在微观层面,相对于非出口行业,脱离金本位使出口密集型行业的失业率下降了2.7个百分点。在总体层面,这一效应刺激了劳动力市场、财政前景与经济增长。因此,贬值是推动经济走出大萧条谷底、实现复苏的一个重要初始推动力。

Abstract

This paper evaluates how a major policy shift—the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931—affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industries. At the aggregate level, this effect stimulated the labor market, the fiscal outlook, and economic growth. Devaluation was therefore an important initial spark of recovery from the depths of the Great Depression.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →