American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2026 · Andrés Fernández、Daniel Guzmán-Girón、Ruy Lama、Carlos A. Végh
中文摘要
我们构建了一个刻画最优税率与政府支出在经济周期中联合行为的模型，以解释新兴市场的顺周期财政政策。我们的设定依赖于金融摩擦，已有研究表明这是新兴市场的关键特征，其表现为不同程度的资产市场不完全性以及不同水平的债务弹性利率利差。我们表明，不完全市场能够解释政府支出的顺周期性，但未必能解释税收政策的顺周期性。要解释税收政策的顺周期性，还需要私人消费与公共消费之比与商业周期同向变动。(JEL E12, E21, E31, E32, E43, E62, H50)
Abstract
We develop a model of the joint behavior of optimal tax rates and government spending over the business cycle to explain procyclical fiscal policy in emerging markets. Our setup relies on financial frictions, which have been shown to be critical features of emerging markets, captured by various degrees of asset market incompleteness as well as varying levels of debt-elastic interest rate spreads. We show that incomplete markets can account for procyclical government spending but not necessarily procyclical tax policy. Explaining procyclical tax policy also requires that the ratio of private to public consumption comoves positively with the business cycle. (JEL E12, E21, E31, E32, E43, E62, H50)