Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2026 · Yuriy Gorodnichenko、Ari Kutai、Rafi Melnick
中文摘要
本研究分析企业在货币政策机制转变并过渡到低通胀环境后如何形成其通胀预期。利用以色列银行的企业调查,我们记录了企业通胀预期的基本特征,并考察以色列企业在收到有关通胀或货币政策的新信息后如何更新其通胀预期。我们发现,即使在成功去美元化和通胀回落之后,正的通胀意外仍会导致通胀预期出现相当大幅度的向上调整。我们的结果表明,在实现价格稳定之后的很长时间内,管理者的经历仍使企业持续关注通胀。(JEL D22, D84, E31, E43, E52)
Abstract
This study analyzes how firms form their inflation expectations after a regime change in monetary policy and a transition to a low-inflation environment. Using the Bank of Israel survey of firms, we document the basic properties of firms' inflation expectations and examine how Israeli firms update their inflation expectations after receiving new information about inflation or monetary policy. We find that even after successful de-dollarization and disinflation, a positive inflation surprise leads to a sizable upward adjustment in inflation expectations. Our results suggest that managers' experiences keep firms attentive to inflation long after price stability is achieved. (JEL D22, D84, E31, E43, E52)