Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · George Alessandria、Shafaat Yar Khan、Armen Khederlarian、Kim J. Ruhl、Joseph B. Steinberg
中文摘要
我们研究1950—2008年间中国对美国的出口增长,利用结构模型将过去关税变动的影响与对未来关税预期变化的影响区分开来。我们发现,中国1980年获得正常贸易关系(NTR)待遇的影响一直持续到其2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)之后;丧失NTR地位的可能性在1986—1992年期间显著下降,但此后变化甚微。美国制造业就业趋势支持我们的发现:受1980年改革影响更大的行业自那时起持续流失工人,且并未在中国加入WTO前后出现加速。
Abstract
We study China’s export growth to the United States from 1950 to 2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China’s 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986–92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends support our findings: industries more exposed to the 1980 reform have shed workers steadily since then without acceleration around China’s WTO accession.