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花钱才能当选议员:来自英国160年竞选支出的证据

It Takes Money to Make MPs: Evidence from 160 Years of British Campaign Spending
The Journal of Economic History · 2025 · Julia Cagé、Edgard Dewitte

中文摘要

我们透过竞选支出的视角,对选举竞选活动进行长期研究。我们构建了一个关于1857至2017年英国大选的全新且详尽的数据集。我们就竞选活动的历史提供了定量洞见,其中包括从雇佣受薪人员向广告投放的转变。随后我们表明,候选人支出与得票之间的相关性自19世纪80年代以来大幅上升,并在20世纪最后25年达到峰值。我们将这一模式与新信息技术的引入——尤其是地方电台和互联网——以及竞选策略的转变联系起来。

Abstract

We study electoral campaigns over the long run, through the lens of their spending. We build a novel, exhaustive dataset on U.K. general elections from 1857 to 2017. We provide quantitative insights on the history of campaigns, including the shift away from paid staff toward advertising. We then show that the correlation between candidate spending and votes has strongly increased since the 1880s, peaking in the last quarter of the twentieth century. We link this pattern to the introduction of new information technologies—in particular, local radio and the Internet—and to the transformations of campaign strategies.
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