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干旱、冲突与民主合法性的重要性:来自前工业化欧洲的证据

Droughts, Conflicts, and the Importance of Democratic Legitimacy: Evidence from Pre-Industrial Europe
The Journal of Economic History · 2025 · Evan Wigton-Jones

中文摘要

本研究表明,在公元900年至1800年间,干旱与欧洲城市层面的动乱之间存在稳健的相关关系。这一关系是非线性的:在严重程度分布上尾的干旱中,冲突发生概率的增加幅度不成比例地更大。经选举产生的城市政府对干旱引发的冲突相对具有免疫力,而以市民或行会代表制为基础的城市政府则不具备这种免疫力。这些结果表明,地方政府是经济冲击期间维持社会稳定的关键,而当地方政府拥有更高程度的民主合法性时,其成效最为显著。

Abstract

This research shows that droughts are robustly associated with city-level unrest in Europe over the years 900 to 1800 ce. This relationship is non-linear, with disproportionately greater increases in the probability of a conflict among droughts in the upper tail of the severity distribution. Elected city governments are relatively immune to drought-induced conflict, while those based on representation by burghers or guilds are not. These results suggest that local governments are key to maintaining social stability during economic shocks, and are most successful when they have a greater degree of democratic legitimacy.
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