Winners and Losers: The Asymmetric Impact of Tariff Protection on Late-Nineteenth-Century Swedish Manufacturing Firms
中文摘要
跨国回归结果表明,保护主义促进了工业化。我利用涵盖瑞典制造业企业的新颖且高度细化的数据,估计瑞典1891年后向保护主义转变对工厂层面发展的影响。主要运用双向固定效应回归,我发现关税上调在不同工厂之间产生了异质性影响:初期生产率较低的工厂提高了生产率,而初期生产率较高的工厂则出现了相对下降。我认为,关税对低生产率工厂与高生产率工厂管理者进行创新和(重)新组织生产的激励产生了差异化的影响。与现代贸易理论相一致,异质性的工厂层面动态构成了潜在的"关税—增长悖论"的基础。
Abstract
Cross-country regressions suggest that protectionism supported industrialization. I leverage novel and highly granular data covering Swedish manufacturing firms to estimate the impact of Sweden’s shift toward protectionism after 1891 on establishment-level development. Using mainly two-way fixed effects regressions, I show that tariff increases had a heterogeneous impact across establishments: initially low-productivity establishments increased their productivity, while initially high-productivity establishments experienced a relative decline. I suggest that tariffs differentially shaped the incentives of managers in low- and high-productivity establishments to innovate and (re)organize production. Consistent with modern trade theory, heterogeneous establishment-level dynamics underlie a potential tariff-growth paradox.