← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

黄金十字架:巴西宝藏与葡萄牙的衰落

The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal
The Journal of Economic History · 2025 · Davis Kedrosky、Nuno Palma

中文摘要

迟至1750年,以西欧标准衡量,葡萄牙的人均产出仍处于较高水平。然而仅仅一个世纪之后,葡萄牙便沦为该地区最贫穷的国家。本文表明,十八世纪在巴西发现的大量黄金对葡萄牙的长期发展起到了关键作用。该国深受经济与政治层面的资源诅咒之害。基于合成控制方法的反事实分析表明,到1800年,葡萄牙的人均GDP比在没有巴西黄金禀赋的情形下低了40%。 *

Abstract

As late as 1750, Portugal had a high output per head by Western European standards. Yet just a century later, Portugal was this region’s poorest country. In this paper, we show that the discovery of massive quantities of gold in Brazil over the eighteenth century played a key role in the long-run development of Portugal. The country suffered from an economic and political resource curse. A counterfactual based on synthetic control methods suggests that by 1800 Portugal’s GDP per capita was 40 percent lower than it would have been without its endowment of Brazilian gold. *
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →