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分散且扭曲信念下的最优税收

Optimal tax under dispersed and distorted beliefs
Journal of Economic Theory · 2026 · Deepal Basak、Yunhui Zhao

中文摘要

我们研究大型经济中的最优矫正性税收,其中总体行为产生负外部性。行为人观察一个公共信号(计划者也能观察到)和私人信号(计划者与其他行为人均无法观察到)。行为人对两类信号均会过度反应,即高估其精确度。最优税收弥合均衡与社会最优之间的差距,并可分解为理性预期下最优的税收规则与一项行为调整。源自共同信念模型的传统观点认为,该调整应使税收对公共信号更加敏感。但这一逻辑假定行为人仅依据计划者所能观察到的信息行动。一旦信念是分散的,该调整必须转而通过已实现的总体行为发挥作用,而该调整对公共信号的直接反应符号发生反转。

Abstract

We study optimal corrective taxation in a large economy where the aggregate action imposes a negative externality. Agents observe a public signal, which the planner also sees, and private signals, which neither the planner nor other agents see. Agents overreact to both by overestimating their precision. The optimal tax closes the gap between equilibrium and the social optimum, and decomposes into the tax rule that would be optimal under rational expectations and a behavioral adjustment. Conventional wisdom, derived from common-belief models, holds that the adjustment should make the tax more sensitive to the public signal. But that logic assumes agents act only on what the planner observes. Once beliefs are dispersed, the adjustment must instead work through the realized aggregate action, and its direct response to the public signal reverses sign.
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