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Ruth、Anthony 与 Clarence

Ruth, Anthony, and Clarence
Theoretical Economics · 2026 · Jeffrey C. Ely

中文摘要

无党派选民之所以走向两极分化,并非因为意识形态,而是因为对他们而言,保持不知情并抵消'另一方'不知情选民的选票才是最优选择。事实上,当陷入这种两极分化状态时,这样做也是社会最优的。动态过程可能使一个原本运转良好的集体走向不可逆的两极分化。声誉效应可能只会使情况更糟。

Abstract

Nonpartisan voters can become polarized not because of ideology but because it is optimal for them to remain uninformed and cancel out the votes of uninformed voters on “the other side.” Indeed, when stuck in such a state of polarization, it is socially optimal to do so. Dynamics can lead an otherwise well‐functioning assembly into irreversible polarization. Reputation effects might only make things worse.
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