从家计调查型项目到全民基本收入——内生参与在转移支付项目中的作用

This paper studies the effects of replacing the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) with a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in an environment where EITC take-up is incomplete. In contrast, UBI ensures full participation by design, extending benefits to households who do not take up the EITC, at the cost of higher fiscal expenditures. I study this trade-off between expanded coverage and fiscal cost using a life-cycle model with an endogenous EITC participation decision that replicates the observed eligibility and take-up patterns. The results show that a generous UBI ($12,000 annually) reduces welfare due to the substantial fiscal burden it entails, whereas a modest UBI ($3500 per year) improves welfare by reaching previously uncovered households at only a moderate fiscal cost. These findings highlight the importance of the program participation margin in evaluating policy reforms.