中文摘要
本文考察了“大衰退”之后非常规货币政策对财富分布各层级家庭福利的影响。我使用经贝叶斯方法估计的异质性主体新凯恩斯模型,分析了前瞻指引与量化宽松在此期间如何影响不平等。研究结果表明,尽管这些政策刺激了经济活动并使所有家庭受益,但其分配效应是非线性的:非常规货币政策通过降低失业率缩小了底层90%人群内部的不平等,却又通过推高利润与股票价格扩大了顶层10%人群与其余人群之间的收入差距。此外,我发现前瞻指引放大了资产购买计划的总体效应与分配效应。与常规货币政策相比,如果政策利率未受零利率下限约束,利率政策本会产生比量化宽松更为不利的分配效应。
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of unconventional monetary policies on household welfare across the wealth distribution following the Great Recession. Using a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model, estimated with Bayesian methods, I analyze how forward guidance and quantitative easing affected inequality during this period. The findings show that while these policies boosted economic activity and benefited all households, they had non-linear distributional effects. Unconventional monetary policies reduced inequality within the bottom 90 percent by lowering unemployment but widened the income gap between the top 10 percent and the rest by raising profits and equity prices. Additionally, I find that forward guidance amplified both the aggregate and distributional effects of asset purchase programs. In comparison to conventional monetary policy, interest rate policy would have had more adverse distributional effects than quantitative easing if the policy rate had not been constrained by the zero lower bound.