American Economic Journal: Microeconomics · 2026 · Kaustav Das、Tatiana Mayskaya、Arina Nikandrova
中文摘要
我们在一个对创新可行性存在不确定性的动态模型中研究合并对研发活动的影响。合并具有三种效应：它可能减少后续创新的数量（蚕食效应），增加首个颠覆性创新出现的概率（专有性效应），并使该创新在时间上提前（信息效应）。该模型表明，当研发结果高度不确定时，合并更可取；但当创新路径更清晰时则不然。一个令人惊讶的政策含义是，如果首个创新与后续创新是更接近的替代品，合并的收益可能更高。(JEL D21, D83, G34, O31)
Abstract
We study the effect of a merger on R&D activity in a dynamic model with uncertainty about the feasibility of innovation. The merger has three effects: It may reduce the number of follow-up innovations (cannibalization effect), increase the probability of the first game-changer innovation (appropriability effect), and bring this innovation forward in time (informational effect). The model suggests mergers are more desirable when R&D outcomes are highly uncertain, but less so when the innovation path is clearer. A surprising policy implication is that the benefit of the merger may be higher if the first and subsequent innovations are closer substitutes. (JEL D21, D83, G34, O31)