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临时就业合同的生命周期含义

The Life Cycle Implications of Temporary Employment Contracts
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2026 · Rosemary Kaiser

中文摘要

就业保护往往会造成两级劳动力市场,使工作保障程度出现显著差异。我使用一个定量生命周期模型估计取消这些保护的影响,在该模型中,年轻工人更可能选择进入不稳定的工作。工人在就业时积累人力资本,并在失业时面临人力资本损失的可能性。由于工作保障程度更高的工人经历的失业期更少,他们往往在职业生涯中积累更多人力资本。我表明,减少就业保护会提高年轻工人的求职率,但会降低人力资本、GDP和就业。这些政策的影响在不同年龄之间差异显著。

Abstract

Employment protections often create two-tiered labor markets with substantial differences in job security. I estimate the effects of removing these protections using a quantitative life-cycle model, where younger workers are more likely to select into precarious jobs. Workers accumulate human capital when employed and face the possibility of human capital losses in unemployment. Because workers with greater job security experience fewer unemployment spells, they tend to accumulate more human capital over their careers. I show that reducing employment protections boosts younger workers' job-finding rates but lowers human capital, GDP, and employment. The impacts of these policies differ significantly by age.
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