American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2026 · Julien Acalin、Laurence M. Ball
中文摘要
本文考察1951年美联储—财政部协议之前的基本预算盈余、意外通胀与钉住利率对美国公共债务/GDP比率的影响。我们发现，在保持基本预算平衡、且不存在由意外通胀和协议前钉住利率造成的实际利率扭曲的情况下，债务/GDP比率只会从1946年的106%降至1974年的74%，而不会像实际历史那样降至23%。我们的研究结果表明，在过去76年中，只有很小一部分债务削减是通过高于无扭曲利率的增长率实现的。(JEL E23, E31, E43, E65, H61, H63, N12)
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 on the US public debt/GDP ratio. We find that with the primary budget balance and without distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg, debt/GDP would have declined only from 106 percent in 1946 to 74 percent in 1974, not to 23 percent as in actual history. Our findings imply that, over the last 76 years, only a small amount of debt reduction has been achieved through growth rates that exceed undistorted interest rates. (JEL E23, E31, E43, E65, H61, H63, N12)