American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2026 · Sjak A. Smulders、Sophie Zhou
中文摘要
技术锁定一直是清洁创新起步缓慢的标准解释，但这一解释难以与前瞻性投资者的预期相协调——他们预期最终会转向清洁技术。我们提出一种替代性解释：战略性投资互补性塑造了创新，而自我实现预言可以导致低碳转型的延迟。我们分析了一个包含清洁投入与污染投入的标准定向技术变迁模型。在投入品具有良好替代性的情况下，两个稳定的稳态并存，每个稳态均允许多条转型路径。最优低碳转型需要庇古税规则与一种协调机制相结合；仅承诺庇古税路径无法解决协调失灵。(JEL H23, O31, O33, O44, Q54, Q55)
Abstract
Technological lock-in has been a standard explanation for the slow take-off of clean innovation, but is hard to reconcile with forward-looking investors who anticipate the eventual switch to clean technologies. We provide an alternative explanation: strategic investment complementarities shape innovation and self-fulfilling prophecies can lead to delayed low-carbon transition. We analyze a standard directed technical change model with clean and dirty inputs. Under good input substitutability, two stable steady states co-exist, each allowing multiple transitional paths. Optimal low-carbon transition requires a Pigouvian tax rule combined with a coordination device; commitment to a Pigouvian tax trajectory cannot solve a coordination failure. (JEL H23, O31, O33, O44, Q54, Q55)