International Economic Review · 2025 · Bruno Ricardo Delalibera、Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira、Rafael Machado Parente
中文摘要
我们研究劳动力市场与养老金体系存在分割的经济体中的社会保障改革。我们构建了一个包含异质性主体、退休行为内生以及公共部门、正规部门与非正规部门之间部门选择内生的生命周期一般均衡模型。该模型根据巴西情况进行校准， 结果表明， 统一养老金体系并提高最低退休年龄可使养老金赤字减少近 40%, 同时提高产出、资本积累与福利， 尽管改革在不同年龄组、不同部门之间以及转型路径上会产生再分配效应。部门间再配置在塑造改革效应方面发挥核心作用， 忽略这些调整边际将大幅低估养老金改革的宏观经济后果。
Abstract
ABSTRACT We study social security reforms in economies with segmented labor markets and pension systems. We develop a life‐cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous retirement and sectoral choice across public, formal, and informal jobs. Calibrated to Brazil, the model shows that unifying pension systems and raising the minimum retirement age reduce the pension deficit by nearly 40 percent, while increasing output, capital accumulation, and welfare, despite redistributive effects across age groups, sectors, and along the transition path. Sectoral reallocation plays a central role in shaping reform effects, and ignoring these margins substantially underestimates the macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms.