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为老龄化的非洲做准备:经济研究与政策的数据驱动优先事项

Preparing for an Aging Africa: Data-Driven Priorities for Economic Research and Policy
Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics · 2025 · Madeline Duhon、Edward A. Miguel、Amos Gitau Njuguna、Daniela Pinto Veizaga、Michael Walker

中文摘要

撒哈拉以南非洲的60岁以上人口预计将在未来几十年迅速增长,在2020年至2050年间增至三倍。尽管存在这种爆炸性的预计增长,该地区鲜有国家实施了旨在支持老年人口的政策。此外,经济学领域很少有研究专门考察撒哈拉以南非洲的老龄化问题,尽管经济学家存在诸多机会来产生研究证据,以为该领域有效政策的设计提供参考。本文进行了原始数据分析以刻画撒哈拉以南非洲老年人面临的挑战与机遇,并结合跨学科证据回顾的见解,识别出四个关键事实与三条前进路径,以指导围绕医疗保健体系、养老金及其他公共支持项目设计的未来经济研究与政策,从而为老龄化的非洲做准备。

Abstract

The over-60 population in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades, tripling between 2020 and 2050. Despite this explosive projected growth, few countries in the region have implemented policies designed to support older populations. Further, little research in economics has specifically examined aging in Sub-Saharan Africa, though many opportunities exist for economists to generate research evidence to inform the design of effective policies in this area. This paper conducts original data analysis to characterize the challenges and opportunities facing older Sub-Saharan Africans, and combines this with insights from a cross-disciplinary evidence review to identify four key facts and three paths forward for future economic research and policy around the design of health care systems, pensions, and other public support programs to prepare for an aging Africa.
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