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区域不平等与人口迁移如何推高房价与租金

How Regional Inequality and Migration Drive Housing Prices and Rents
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025 · Howard, Greg、Liebersohn, Jack

中文摘要

我们认为,不断加剧的区域不平等推高了平均房价和租金。我们展示了构成这一机制的三个关键经验事实:第一,本已高收入的城市收入增长更快;第二,收入增长吸引人口流入这些城市,提高了相对住房需求以及相对房价和租金;第三,这些城市的住房供给因密度和管制而缺乏弹性,因而未能提供与不断上升的需求相匹配的住房。我们用一个图形化的空间模型来说明由此产生的变化:在该模型中,不断加剧的区域不平等使人口向高收入、供给受限的地区重新配置。这一变化推高了全国平均房价和租金。

Abstract

We argue that rising regional inequality contributes to higher average housing prices and rents. We show three key empirical facts that contribute to this mechanism: first, income growth has been faster in already high-income cities; second, people are drawn to these cities by the income growth, raising relative housing demand and relative housing prices and rents; and third, housing supply in these cities is inelastic due to density and regulation, so these cities have not produced the housing to match the rising demand. We illustrate the resulting changes using a graphical spatial model in which rising regional inequality reallocates population toward high-income, supply-constrained areas. This shift raises national average housing prices and rents.
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