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住房市场的国际维度

International Dimensions of Housing Markets
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025 · Badarinza, Cristian、Ramadorai, Tarun

中文摘要

我们认为,从国际视角考察住房市场有助于理解为何房价与交易量有时会以难以简单归因于本地经济因素的方式变动。我们首先记录了房价收入比在跨国与跨时维度上的差异,并有选择地讨论了一支日益增长的文献,这些文献量化了国际资本流动如何影响国内住房市场。尽管该文献有助于为关于全球化对住房市场影响的某些论述提供合理解释,但乍看之下,很难将总体住房市场层面的价格变动归因于跨境住房资本流动相对较小的绝对规模。我们运用搜寻与匹配框架论证,住房市场摩擦可能放大看似温和的冲击的影响,并导致其在住房市场中更广泛地扩散,从而将本地结果与全球财富、风险和生产率的分布联系起来。

Abstract

We make the case that an international perspective on housing markets can help us understand why house prices and transactions volumes sometimes vary in ways that cannot easily be attributed to local economic factors. We first document cross-country and cross-time variation in house price-to-income ratios, and selectively discuss a growing literature which quantifies how international capital flows affect domestic housing markets. While this literature helps rationalize some of the rhetoric on globalization's effects on housing markets, it seems difficult at first glance to attribute price variation at the aggregate housing market level to the relatively small absolute magnitudes of cross-border housing capital flows. We argue using a search and matching framework that housing market frictions can magnify the effect of seemingly modest shocks and lead to more widespread reverberation through the housing market, linking local outcomes to the global distributions of wealth, risk, and productivity.
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