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碳排放过山车:美国脱碳进程的历史分析

Carbon Rollercoaster: A Historical Analysis of Decarbonization in the United States
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025 · Clay, Karen、Jha, Akshaya、Lewis, Joshua、Severnini, Edson

中文摘要

本文记录了美国碳排放的变化趋势,并讨论了造就历史上碳排放过山车走势的主要因素。我们将讨论划分为四个时期:1920年以前、1920—1960年、1960—2005年以及2005年以后。对于每个时期,我们讨论全国碳排放的主要驱动因素。随后,我们讨论电力部门的碳排放趋势。电力部门的排放起初非常微小,但在1980—2015年期间成为美国碳排放的最大来源,并且自2007年以来成为脱碳的最大贡献者。在最后一节,我们提出了一些发展中经济体可以从美国经验中汲取的教训。

Abstract

This paper documents the changing trends in US carbon emissions and discusses the main factors that contributed to the historical carbon emissions rollercoaster. We divide the discussion into four periods: up to 1920, 1920–1960, 1960–2005 and after 2005. For each period, we discuss the main drivers of national carbon emissions. We then discuss trends in carbon emissions in the electricity sector. Electricity sector emissions were initially very small, but would become the largest source of US carbon emissions over the period 1980–2015, and the largest contributor to decarbonization since 2007. In the last section, we offer some lessons for what developing economies might learn from the US experience.
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