中文摘要
基于数个世纪的数据,我们证明人口结构变化一直是房价的一个重要且可预测的驱动因素。25至29年(60至64年)前的高出生率预示着当前租金—房价比率的下降(上升)。这一模式源于进入和退出自有住房集中于特定年龄段从而影响房价,而非源于同样可能影响租金的住房消费变化。我们为可能的机制提供了证据:其他市场参与者对自有住房需求变化的反应迟缓,以及租赁市场与自住市场之间的地理分割。关于随年龄而异的需求效应对债券和股票收益率影响的证据则明显较弱。
Abstract
Based on centuries of data, we demonstrate that demographics have been a major, predictable driver of house prices. High birth rates 25 to 29 (60 to 64) years ago predict declining (rising) rent-price ratios today. This pattern arises from age-concentrated entry into and exit from homeownership affecting house prices, rather than changes in housing consumption that could also impact rents. We provide evidence for possible mechanisms: slow responses of other market participants to shifts in homeownership demand, and geographic segmentation between rental and owner-occupied markets. Evidence for age-dependent demand effects on yields of bonds and stocks is significantly weaker.