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自动化执法与交通安全

Automated Enforcement and Traffic Safety
Management Science · 2025 · Zhi (Aaron) Cheng、Zhanyu Dong、Min-Seok Pang

中文摘要

交通安全是社会与公共政策面临的长期挑战。由于信息不对称以及不安全驾驶行为带来的负外部性,由人类警察执行的传统执法往往成本效益低下。近几十年来,以道路上的交通摄像头为形式的自动化执法日益受到重视,但其有效性及内在机制仍存在争议。本研究利用中国某大城市的纵向数据,考察交通摄像头对道路安全的影响。我们区分了两类摄像头:先进摄像头利用机器学习检测各类交通违法行为并持续录制视频,而传统摄像头则依赖触发式图像抓拍,仅覆盖有限类型的违法行为。采用在道路交叉口分批交错安装摄像头的事件研究设计,我们发现,与没有摄像头或仅有传统摄像头的地点相比,先进摄像头附近的事故显著且持续减少。进一步分析识别出驱动先进摄像头效果的三个关键机制:(i) 自动检测效应——更强的技术能力以实现违法行为检测的自动化;(ii) 实时记录效应——持续监控与记录能力以增强事故原因认定;(iii) 驾驶员学习效应——技术赋能的威慑提高了驾驶员对这些摄像头的认知,并促使其调整行为以降低事故风险。本研究对信息系统、交通经济学和犯罪学有所贡献,并为有效设计和部署自动化执法以改善交通安全提供了政策启示。

Abstract

Traffic safety poses a persistent challenge for society and public policy. Conventional law enforcement by human police is often cost-ineffective because of information asymmetry and negative externalities of unsafe driving behaviors. Automated enforcement, in the form of traffic cameras on the road, has gained prominence in recent decades, yet its effectiveness and underlying mechanisms remain debated. This study examines the impact of traffic cameras on road safety using longitudinal data from a metropolitan city in China. We distinguish between advanced cameras, which use machine learning to detect various traffic violations and constantly record video, and conventional cameras, which rely on triggered image capture for a limited number of violations. Using an event study design with staggered camera installations at road intersections, we observe a significant and sustained reduction in accidents near advanced cameras, compared with locations with no cameras or only conventional cameras. Further analysis identifies three key mechanisms driving the effects of advanced cameras: (i) automated detection effect—superior technical capabilities to automate violation detection; (ii) real-time recording effect—continuous monitoring and recording capability to augment accident cause identification; and (iii) driver learning effect—technology-enabled deterrence that increases driver awareness of these cameras and encourages behavioral adjustments to mitigate accident risks. This study contributes to information systems, transportation economics, and criminology, offering policy insights into the effective design and deployment of automated enforcement to improve traffic safety.
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