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动态银行业与存款的价值

Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits
The Journal of Finance · 2025 · Patrick G M Bolton、Ye Li、Neng Wang、Jinqiang Yang

中文摘要

我们提出一种银行理论,其中银行无法完全控制存款流动。面对不可保险的贷款冲击和存款冲击,银行会动态管理贷款、批发融资、存款和权益。存款通过降低融资成本创造价值。然而,当银行资本不足且面临违反杠杆要求的风险时,存款的边际价值可能转为负值,因为存款流入会提高杠杆,增加高成本权益发行的可能性。银行无法完全控制杠杆,这使它们有别于非存款类中介机构。我们的模型建议重新评估杠杆监管,并为低利率环境下的银行业提供新的视角。

Abstract

We propose a theory of banking in which banks cannot perfectly control deposit flows. Facing uninsurable loan and deposit shocks, banks dynamically manage lending, wholesale funding, deposits, and equity. Deposits create value by lowering funding costs. However, when the bank is undercapitalized and at risk of breaching leverage requirements, the marginal value of deposits can turn negative as deposit inflows, by raising leverage, increase the likelihood of costly equity issuance. Banks' inability to fully control leverage distinguishes them from nondepository intermediaries. Our model suggests a reevaluation of leverage regulations and offers new perspectives on banking in a low‐interest‐rate environment.
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