Management Science · 2025 · João F. Cocco、Francisco Gomes、Paula Lopes
中文摘要
我们利用关于家庭财务预期变化与实际变化的面板数据研究预期形成过程。家庭会从财务状况的改善中进行外推,但财务状况恶化与预测离散程度的上升相关,且负向与正向预测误差的概率均更高。预期收入下降会过快回升的个体储蓄更少,并且未来财务状况再次恶化的可能性更大。从过去的错误中学习会降低个体在财务状况恶化后持乐观态度的可能性。这些证据表明,经历、学习和生活事件如何对预期形成产生影响。
Abstract
We use panel data on expected and realized changes in household finances to study the process of expectation formation. Households extrapolate from improvements in financial situation, but deteriorations are associated with an increased dispersion of forecasts, and higher probabilities of both negative and positive forecast errors. Individuals who expect earnings declines to revert too quickly save less and are more likely to be financially worse off again in the future. Learning from past errors reduces the likelihood that individuals are optimistic following a deterioration in their finances. The evidence shows how experiences, learning, and life events matter for expectation formation.