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家庭内部关于宏观经济预期的分歧

Intrahousehold Disagreement about Macroeconomic Expectations
The Journal of Finance · 2025 · Da Ke

中文摘要

本文强调一个简单的事实:家庭通常由多名成员构成,而这些成员可能持有不同观点;现有衡量和建模家庭宏观经济预期的方法在很大程度上忽略了这一事实。利用关于夫妻双方宏观经济预期的独特数据,我记录了家庭内部在通胀、经济衰退和股票市场回报方面存在显著分歧。我进一步表明,家庭资产配置决策受夫妻双方对未来股票回报分歧的影响,而一项预先注册的随机调查实验证实了此类分歧对投资组合选择的因果影响。

Abstract

This paper highlights the simple fact that households typically consist of multiple members who may hold divergent views, a fact that existing approaches to measuring and modeling household macroeconomic expectations largely abstract from. Using unique data on the macroeconomic expectations of both spouses, I document substantial intrahousehold disagreement about inflation, economic recessions, and stock market returns. I further show that household asset allocation decisions are shaped by disagreement between spouses about future stock returns, and a preregistered randomized survey experiment confirms the causal impact of such disagreement on portfolio choice.
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