贸易流量与汇率：进口商、出口商与产品

中文摘要

本文利用高度细分的交易层面贸易数据，记录了企业层面新增贸易伙伴关系以及既有关系新增产品对总体贸易流的推动作用。此外，我们发现这些边际对汇率变动敏感，并且规模较大的企业在贸易伙伴数量和产品数量两方面都明显更具响应性。随后，我们在一套异质性进口商与出口商之间进行内生匹配的国际贸易模型中，对这些发现加以阐释。模型模拟突出了两点：(1) 汇率影响短期贸易流的一条新渠道；(2) 贸易交易双方的企业异质性在调整过程中的重要性。

Abstract

Using highly-disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Moreover, we find that these margins are sensitive to movements in the exchange rate and that larger firms are substantially more responsive in terms of both the number of trade partners and products. These findings are then rationalized in a model of international trade with endogenous matching between heterogeneous importers and exporters. Simulations of the model highlight: (1) a new channel through which exchange rates influence short-run trade flows; and (2) the importance of firm heterogeneity—on both sides of trade transactions—in the adjustment process.