凶杀案的劳动力市场后果: 来自墨西哥的性别视角
Labor market consequences of homicides: A gender perspective from Mexico
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Lorenzo Aldeco Leo", "affiliation": ["Bank of Mexico"]}, {"name": "Matteo Ghilardi", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}, {"name": "Hugo Tuesta", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}]
中文摘要
本文探讨犯罪率波动如何影响墨西哥的劳动力市场结果。利用详细的调查数据和个体固定效应估计，分析显示，在应对凶杀率上升时，存在明显不同的性别动态：男性更可能退出劳动力市场，而女性则越来越多地加入劳动力队伍，主要进入非正规部门。这一模式与附加劳动者效应一致，我们利用家庭层面证据记录了这一现象。这一结果主要是由贩毒组织的存在所驱动的，这些组织在其行动中主要雇佣男性。暴力升级还提高了劳动力流动性，导致工作分离增多，尤其是在女性中更为明显。我们的结果表明，尽管以凶杀形式出现的犯罪增加可能不会引起总体就业水平的大幅变化，但有证据表明劳动力在部门之间及部门内部发生了重新配置。这表明劳动力市场错配有所增加。
Abstract
This paper explores how fluctuations in crime rates influence labor market outcomes in Mexico. Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates. Men are more likely to exit the labor market, while women increasingly join the workforce, mainly in the informal sector. This pattern is consistent with an added-worker effect, which we document using household-level evidence. This outcome is largely driven by the presence of drug trafficking organizations, which primarily employ men in their operations. Escalating violence also increases labor mobility, leading to higher job separations, especially among women. Our results highlight that while increasing crime in the form of homicides may not induce large changes in the aggregate level of employment, there is evidence of labor reallocation across and within sectors. This suggests an increase in labor market misallocation.