雾霾中的老龄化
Aging in Haze
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Runhao Zhao", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Ye Yuan", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Chong Liu", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Junjian Yi", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究环境如何塑造衰老。利用中国的一项自然实验——燃煤冬季供暖导致政策边界以北地区的颗粒物（PM）浓度在三十多年中持续偏高——我们发现，长期颗粒物暴露会加速衰老，使其超过生物学年龄，导致劳动年龄人口中多种慢性病、功能障碍和认知衰退的发生率上升。这些效应在成年早期处于潜伏状态，在40多岁至50多岁时出现并迅速发展，并在暴露结束后长期持续。在相同暴露条件下，较年长的队列比年轻队列经历更快且更持久的衰老效应，表明生命周期中对污染诱发衰老的脆弱性更大。我们强调，持续的颗粒物暴露会加速衰老，并加剧劳动年龄人口的身体和认知衰退。
Abstract
We study how the environment shapes aging. Leveraging a natural experiment in China where coal-powered winter heating caused persistently higher levels of particulate matters (PMs) north of a policy boundary for over three decades, we find that prolonged PM exposure accelerates aging beyond the biological age, leading to higher rates of multiple chronic conditions, functional disabilities, and cognitive decline in the working-age population. These effects were dormant in the early adulthood, emerged and developed rapidly in age 40s to 50s, and persisted long after exposure ends. Older cohorts experience faster and more enduring aging effects than younger ones under the same exposure, indicating greater life-cycle vulnerability to pollution-induced aging. We highlight that sustained PM exposure accelerates aging and exacerbates physical and cognitive decline in the working-age population.