资源租金是否驱动了城市化与结构转型? 一项全球分析
Do resource rents drive urbanization and structural transformation? A global analysis
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Qing Huang", "affiliation": ["Renmin University of China"]}, {"name": "Victoria Wenxin Xie", "affiliation": ["Santa Clara University"]}, {"name": "Wei You", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}]
中文摘要
本文首次在全球城市样本中，对矿产价格变化对当地人口和部门就业份额的影响提供了因果估计。我们发现，附近矿山开采矿产的价格上涨，会导致当地就业从农业重新配置，主要转向低技能服务业，而不会挤出制造业活动。尽管城市人口有所增长，但采矿繁荣推动大规模城市化的证据有限。撒哈拉以南非洲的城市对采矿繁荣表现出异常强烈的反应。这些结果表明，资源引领的结构转型可能为资源丰富的发展中国家提供一条新的发展路径。
Abstract
This paper provides the first causal estimate of the impact of mineral price changes on the local population and sectoral employment shares in a global sample of cities. We find that increases in the prices of minerals extracted from nearby mines lead to local employment reallocation away from agriculture and primarily toward low-skilled services, without crowding out manufacturing activities. While the city population grows, there is limited evidence for mining booms driving large-scale urbanization. Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa exhibit exceptionally strong responses to mining booms. These results suggest that resource-led structural transformation could present a new development path for resource-rich developing countries.