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意识形态一致性与候选人声望

Ideological consistency and valence
Games and Economic Behavior · 2025 · Aragonès, Enriqueta、Xefteris, Dimitrios

中文摘要

我们研究两个以胜选为动机的候选人之间的选举竞争, 考虑到选民既关注候选人的声望 (valence), 也关注竞争候选人的意识形态一致性。当声望不对称程度不太大时, 我们发现存在唯一的纯策略纳什均衡, 其中 (i) 政纲极化 (即候选人政策提案之间的距离) 仅由一致性偏好的强度决定, 且 (ii) 预期政策结果可能随左翼候选人声望的提高而向右移动。当声望差异较大时, 会出现一个混合策略均衡: 高声望的左翼候选人选择温和的右翼政策, 而低声望的右翼候选人通常以极端右翼立场回应, 偶尔以温和左翼立场回应。我们的分析为候选人的立场摇摆动机以及政党提名低质量候选人的动机提供了新的洞见。

Abstract

We study electoral competition between two win-motivated candidates, considering that voters care both about the valence and the ideological consistency of the competing candidates. When valence asymmetries are not too large we find a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium in which (i) platform polarization (i.e. the distance between the candidates' policy proposals) is solely determined by the strength of preferences for consistency, and (ii) the expected policy outcome may move to the right as the valence of the leftist candidate increases. When valence differences are large, a mixed equilibrium emerges: the high-valence left-wing candidate chooses a moderate right policy and the low-valence right-wing candidate responds, usually, with an extreme right position and, occasionally, with a moderate left one. Our analysis provides novel insights regarding candidates' flip-flopping incentives, and parties' motives to nominate low-quality candidates.
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