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进口竞争在不同职业间的效应

The effect of import competition across occupations
Journal of International Economics · 2025 · Basco, Sergi、Liégey, Maxime、Mestieri, Martí、Smagghue, Gabriel

中文摘要

我们实证考察了进口竞争对不同职业工人收入的影响。为指导分析,我们构建了一个程式化模型,强调各行业以不同强度使用各类职业。我们证明,职业暴露指数概括了一个职业对行业层面贸易冲击的总体暴露程度。我们以不断加剧的中国竞争作为这些行业层面贸易冲击的代理变量,并使用1993年至2015年具有全国代表性的法国雇主—雇员匹配面板数据,得到了与模型预测相一致的证据。我们发现,初始就业于对中国竞争高度暴露职业(以我们的职业暴露指数衡量)的工人,其收入下降幅度更大。我们估计结果的量级表明,中国竞争加剧对工人收入的影响中,源于工人职业差异的效应与源于工人就业部门的效应量级相当。这一发现表明,将贸易在职业间的分配效应纳入考量在定量上十分重要。

Abstract

We empirically examine the effect of import competition on worker earnings across occupations. To guide our analysis, we develop a stylized model that emphasizes industries using occupations in different intensities. We show that an occupational exposure index summarizes the overall exposure of an occupation to industry-level trade shocks. Proxying these industry-level trade shocks with rising Chinese competition and using nationally representative matched employer–employee French panel data from 1993 through 2015, we obtain evidence consistent with the predictions of the model. We find that workers initially employed in occupations highly exposed to Chinese competition – as measured by our occupational exposure index – experience larger declines in earnings. The magnitude of our estimates implies that the effect of rising Chinese competition on workers’ earnings due to differences in workers’ occupations is of comparable magnitude to the effect of workers’ sector of employment. This finding suggests that accounting for the distributional effects of trade across occupations is quantitatively important.
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