帝国计划：战间期加拿大的贸易政策

中文摘要

本文使用一个涵盖1924年至1936年间加拿大全部进口与关税的新数据集，细分为源自112个国家的1697种商品，以分析战间期加拿大贸易政策（包括1932年渥太华贸易协定）对加拿大进口的影响。我们并未采用虚拟变量方法，而是计算单项关税的影响，这些关税在商品、贸易伙伴和时间之间差异很大。我们进行了多种反事实分析，以确定关税对贸易流量的影响。1929年以后关税变动（包括1932年协定）的总体影响相对较小，这反映出加拿大贸易政策本已高度保护主义这一事实：贸易协定对参与方可能产生异质性效应，因为所涉及的冲击各不相同。与自由贸易的反事实情形相比，总体保护结构对加拿大进口的影响较大。

Abstract

This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tariff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have heterogeneous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on Canadian imports was large.