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20世纪初的美国例外主义:汽车的生产、贸易与扩散

Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile
Journal of International Economics · 2025 · Cheng, Dong、Crucini, Mario J.、Oh, Hyunseung、Yilmazkuday, Hakan

中文摘要

本文整理了美国向23个目的地国家出口汽车的数量与单位价值的历史数据,以及与汽车相关的自然壁垒和官方壁垒,用以解释到1929年美国与中位数国家之间46:1的汽车采用差距。对于中位数目的地国家而言,出口加成、关税与运输成本各自大致为20%从价等值的扭曲,零售分销楔子约为30%,而国外使用者成本楔子(基于汽油税)则超过100%。结果表明,消除这些相对于美国的价格楔子和收入差异,可解释80%以上的采用差距。所估计的简化式采用模型解释了大部分时间序列变动:相对价格下降与收入增长推动美国及全球的汽车采用随时间上升,而大萧条则在相对价格大致不变的情况下逆转了其中部分成果。

Abstract

This paper curates historical data on the quantity and unit value of automobiles exported from the United States to 23 destination countries along with natural and official barriers relevant to automobiles to account for the 46:1 automobile adoption gap between the US and the median country by 1929. For the median destination country, the export markup, tariff, and shipping cost are each roughly 20% ad-valorem-equivalent distortions, the retail distribution wedge is about 30%, and the foreign user cost wedge (based on gasoline taxes) is above 100%. Eliminating these price wedges and income differences relative to the US is shown to account for over 80% of the adoption gap. The estimated reduced-form adoption model accounts for much of the time series variation with relative price declines and income growth driving US and global adoption upward over time and the Great Depression reversing some of these gains at roughly constant relative prices.
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