二氧化碳排放管制与异质性燃煤发电机的发电配置

Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Zhiyuan Chen", "affiliation": ["Renmin University of China"]}, {"name": "Rong Luo", "affiliation": ["Renmin University of China"]}, {"name": "Li Su", "affiliation": ["Renmin University of China"]}]

中文摘要

本文使用发电机组层面的框架，分析不同二氧化碳排放规制水平对中国南方电网公司总排放和发电成本的影响。我们使用一套新颖的发电机组层面数据集，采用结构方法估计纳入异质性规模报酬和未观测生产率的发电机组层面生产函数。我们发现，不同发电机组之间的发电效率存在显著异质性，且大型发电机组效率最高。反事实分析表明，在更高汇总层级（省或区域）规制排放并分配发电量，可以通过将发电转向效率更高的发电机组和电厂，从而降低总排放和发电成本。与电厂层面框架相比，发电机组层面框架能够实现更有效的配置。

Abstract

Using a generator-level framework, we analyze the impacts of different regulation levels of CO 2 emissions on total emissions and generation costs in the China Southern Power Grid Corporation. We employ a structural approach to estimating the generator-level production functions that incorporate heterogeneous returns to scale and unobserved productivity, using a novel generator-level dataset. We find substantial heterogeneity in generation efficiency across generators, and large generators are the most efficient. Counterfactual analyses show that regulating emissions and allocating generation at a more aggregate level (province or region) can reduce total emissions and generation costs by shifting generation toward more efficient generators and plants. The generator-level framework allows for more efficient allocation than the plant-level framework.