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从宏观到微观:大型出口商如何应对全球危机

From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises
Journal of International Economics · 2025 · Bricongne, Jean-Charles、Carluccio, Juan、Fontagné, Lionel、Gaulier, Guillaume、Stumpner, Sebastian

中文摘要

利用1993—2020年的月度企业层面出口与进口数据,我们揭示了四个事实:(i) 大型出口商对平均增长率的偏离解释了总体波动的很大一部分;(ii) 这些偏离的一个重要来源是头部出口商对共同冲击的更高载荷;(iii) 前1%出口商对全球金融危机和新冠危机的更强反应加剧了出口萎缩;(iv) 这种更强反应源于对大型需求冲击的更高弹性,而非对全球价值链冲击的不同暴露。结果表明,大型企业对共同冲击的特质性反应对总体出口波动具有重要影响,并且与2008/2009年危机和新冠疫情期间的贸易萎缩尤为相关。

Abstract

Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993–2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters’ higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global value chain shocks, contributes to this stronger reaction. The results show that idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations, and are especially relevant for the trade collapses of the 2008/2009 crisis and the Pandemic.
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